“USDINR CMP- 83.35 (spot) Indian Rupee depreciated marginally by 1 paise on Monday losing early gains amid a recovery in the US Dollar index. Rupee gained earlier in the day as both the domestic indices surged to record highs. FII inflows also supported the local currency. US Dollar declined on Friday on dovish comments by US Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell which raised rate cut bets in 2024. Other economic data from the US was mixed to negative with ISM manufacturing PMI contracting for the thirteenth consecutive month. We expect the Rupee to trade with a slight positive bias on positive domestic markets and expectations of fresh foreign inflows after surprising results from the state election results. The decline in crude oil prices and bolstering rate cut bets by the Fed may also support Rupee. However, the buying of Dollars by RBI may cap sharp gains. Traders may take cues from US factory orders. Investors may remain cautious ahead of RBI’s monetary policy decision later this week. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 83 to Rs 83.60,” said Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst , Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

“The Nifty prices initiated the week on a high note, reaching a time high at 20602.50. In contrast, Bank Nifty is still around 1 percent to approach its record peak. A bullish crossover was observed between key moving averages—specifically, the 21-day and 55-day EMAs. This convergence strengthens the likelihood of a sustained upward trend in prices, with a potential consolidation around the 21000 mark, and 47000 level in bank nifty. However, at the same time, we can’t rule out the possibility of a corrective pullback driven by profit-booking activities as many oscillators currently indicate an overbought market condition. Despite this cautionary note, our outlook maintains confidence in the bullish trajectory. Any corrective decline towards the range of 20300-20250 is viewed as an opportune moment for strategic market entry, while 44800-45000 in bank nifty will allow investors to establish fresh long positions.”

“Some sectors that are expected to do better in the near term are the Banking sector as they have attractive valuations and are backed with clean and healthy balance sheets, strong asset quality, and are witnessing robust credit growth. The auto sector is expected to rebound mainly due to growing incomes, growing demand, growth in infrastructure, favorable government policies, and urbanization. The EV segment is also expected to grow in the coming years. The FMCG sector has been growing significantly in India over the past few years and is expected to do well in the future as its products are always in demand. The IT sector is also expected to perform well due to a shift in technology towards analytics, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence.”

– Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President, Master Capital Services

“With the overhang of state poll results now behind us, investors are likely to bet big on a major policy push in the run-up to General Elections next year, which is likely to reflect well on domestic equity markets amid strong (and growing) retail investor participation. The recent macro data numbers along with global rating agencies upgrading growth forecasts indicate India remains a bright spot in a still challenging global economy. While flows from retail investors have been good so far, the overall long-term growth prospects could drive the momentum going ahead,” said Shiv Sharma, India-Head , Stocktwits.

Shares of Newgen Software witnessed a 4 percent jump in early trade on December 4, following an upward revision of the target price by global brokerage Jefferies. Jefferies, while maintaining its ‘buy’ call, raised the target to Rs 1,740 per share from Rs 1,275 apiece.

The Nifty Oil & Gas index soared 3.44% during intra-day trade on Monday. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation led the gains with a surge of 8.23%, while BPCL, GAIL, and OIL each rallied over 5%.

“Nifty’s immediate target is 20,750, with the auspicious level of 21,000 easily within reach. The previous breakout level of 20,222 will serve as the market’s floor, and with the pre-election rally underway, Nifty could climb towards 22,500 ahead of the general election. Bank Nifty is assuming leadership with a breakout of an inverse head and shoulder pattern, setting an immediate target of 46,400 and a subsequent target of 47,500. 45,000 will now act as the base. The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) and There Is No Alternative (TINA) factors will further fuel the market rally. With clear signs of political stability and India shining as a bright spot in the macroeconomic landscape, FIIs are left feeling compelled to invest, fearing they will miss out on the opportunities India presents.”

– Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart.

Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, BPCL, L&T, AND ONGC are the top gainers on NSE Nifty 50 index.

(Source: NSE)

Share price of Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) soared 6.71% to Rs 883.35 after the company announced that it has recorded strong cargo volumes of around 36 MMT in the month of November 2023, up 42% year-on-year. “Growth was witnessed across all three broad cargo categories – dry bulk (over 60% YoY), containers (over 26%) and liquids and gas (over 23%),” the company said in a regulatory filing.

“See the start of the pre-election rally for May 2024, which began in November and picked up speed after the state election results. The Nifty benchmark rose by a big 334.6 points, hitting a record high of 20,602.50, and the Sensex went up by a whopping 1,106.6 points, reaching a new high of 68,587.82. From a technical standpoint, the Nifty50 index is anticipated to find support in the 20200 -20,150 range, with a robust buy zone identified at 20,350 – 20,420. In the case of the Nifty Bank, strong support is expected around 44,825 – 44,950 levels, with a strong resistance zone identified at 45,375 -45,500 levels. With political stability and strong economic growth in the picture, there’s a possibility that the Nifty could reach the significant milestone of 21,000 by the end of this month,” said Shrey Jain, Founder and CEO SAS Online.

“The five state election results were crucial for the market as it is being seen as the semi-final for the 2024 general elections. The market cheered the results with a 347-point gap up in Nifty. What’s crucial is that it has sustained the gap with support from all the sectors. Taking a cue from the political developments and the market reaction in 2019, the market will witness upward momentum until the run-up to the general elections of 2024. Nifty can see the level of 22000 in the next four to five months. However, since Nifty has already rallied about 1700 in the past one-and-a-half months, occasional profit booking cannot be ruled out,” said Sheersham Gupta, Director and Senior Technical Analyst at Rupeezy.

HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, Adani Enterprises and State Bank of India are among the most active stocks on the NSE.

The stock price of Hindustan Unilever soared by 1.66% to Rs 2606.35. The northward movement is attributed to the company’s announcement to set up a 45 MW solar energy park in Rajasthan in partnership with Brookfield, a leading global alternative asset manager.

The Nifty Bank index soared 2.07% during early trade on Friday. Punjab National Bank and Bank of Baroda led the gains with a surge of 3.41% and 3.15%, respectively. SBI, ICICI Bank, Bandhan Bank, and IndusInd Bank have also rallied over 2% each.

Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, Larsen & Toubro, Coal India and ICICI Bank are leading the gains on the NSE Nifty 50.

“With the recent rally in stock market, any negative news may lead to profit booking. However the current election results are priced in from market perspective and so we believe that there wont be any major impact on the markets,” Vaibhav Shah, Fund Manager, Torus ORO PMS.

“Positive outcome for the ruling government in current state elections brings a big cheer for the Equity markets. This also acts as a precursor to 2024 general assembly elections and increases hope for continuation of regime, thereby political stability and further economic reforms,” said Kaushik Dani, Fund Manager, ABANS Investment Managers.

PSU Bank stocks are leading the gains among the other sectoral indices with a surge of 3.12%, while Private Bank, Financial Services, and Oil & Gas stocks have also rallied over 2% each.

(Source: NSE)

The PSU Bank index is leading the gains among the other sectoral indices with a surge of 2.54% during the early trade. Union Bank of India soared 5.05%, while Canara Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, Punjab & Sind Bank, SBI, Bank of India, PNB, Indian Bank, and Bank of Baroda have rallied over 2% each.

Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India and Bharti Airtel are leading the gains on the NSE Nifty 50 during the early trade on Monday.

“Nifty weekly contract has highest open interest at 21,000 for Calls and 20,000 for Puts while monthly contracts have highest open interest at 21,000 for Calls and 19,000 for Puts. Highest new OI addition was seen at 20,600 for Calls and 20,200 for Puts in weekly and at 19,800 for Calls and 20,200 for Puts in monthly contracts. FIIs increased their future index long position holdings by 9.70%, decreased future index shorts by 2.22% and increased in index options by 50.83% in Call longs, 37.63% in Call short, 99.20% in Put longs and 75.99% in Put shorts, said Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

The NSE Nifty 50 opened at a record high of 20, 601.95 up 1.64%, while BSE Sensex opened at 68,435.34 up 954.15.

“The state elections results have turned out to be a big event which can trigger renewed optimism and further rally in the market. Market likes political stability and a reform-oriented, market-friendly government. From the market perspective, the results were better-than-expected. The market has already partly discounted a BJP victory with a 500 point rally during the last 4 sessions. But the mood is so exuberant that the rally will continue. The global backdrop also is favourable with the US 10-year bond yield declining to 4.23%. An across the board rally in stocks is in the offing. A restraining factor will be the valuations which are high and will get stretched further with the rally gaining momentum. In the near-term the market will ignore fundamentals and move up but soon high valuations will trigger some selling,” said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

“Chair Powell may have dampened expectations for rate cuts, but this Monday morning sees Gift Nifty jumping anyway. Investors globally eagerly await December for the famed Santa Claus Rally, and this morning, the Christmas Cake is baked for solid gains. Key catalysts include a resurgent optimism from FIIs, with Rs. 10,593 crores bought in the past week, a 15.1% YoY rise in GST collections, and BJP’s state election results adding fuel to bullish sentiments. Bulls are thrilled with considerable drops in US inflation, a 5.2% Q3 US GDP surpassing the 4.9% estimate, and optimism that the Federal Reserve may cut borrowing costs in Q1 2024. With positive global cues, the Dow gained 2.42% in the past week, setting the stage for Nifty to start the week with a bullish bang, eyeing inter-month targets at the 21,000 mark. Preferred trades on Nifty and Bank Nifty include buying at CMP with specific targets,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities.

“The USD/INR 27th December futures contract experienced a decline from its recent highs. Based on the weekly technical chart analysis, the currency pair is currently trading above its moving average trend-line support level of 83.25, with the RSI holding above the 50 levels. However, the technical setup reveals negative divergence in the MACD, indicating a potential weakening of the bullish momentum. The pair is encountering significant resistance at higher levels. According to the weekly technical chart, the pair has support in the range of 83.22-83.05, while resistance is positioned at 83.55-83.70. The currency pair has been consolidating in a narrow range for an extended period and is anticipated to continue trading within the 82.80-83.70 range this week. To make informed trading decisions, it is advisable to closely monitor the levels of 83.25-83.50. A breakout on either side of this range could provide further guidance on the future direction of the pair,” Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities.

The NSE has added Delta Corp to its F&O ban list for December 4, 2023.

Foreign institutional investors (FII) purchased shares worth net Rs 1,589.61 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DII) added shares worth net Rs 1,448.08 crore on December 1, 2023, according to the provisional data available on the NSE.

Wall Street major indices ended higher on Friday. The benchmark S&P 500 index closed at its highest level of the year on Friday amid growing optimism the Federal Reserve was done raising US interest rates and could begin to cut them next year as inflation cools, reported Reuters. The S&P 500 advanced 0.59% to 4,594.63, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 78.81 points or 0.55% to settle at 14,305.03, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 294.61 points to 36,245.50.